The New York Yankees finished last season with a 94-68 record to lead the American League. They made it all the way to the World Series for the 41st time. Sadly, they fell to the Trolly Dodgers in five games. This year’s team looks to get back to the Fall Classic and finish the job. However, there have been some major changes to the roster since last they took the field in a game that mattered. Let’s break down everything that happened to the Bronx Bombers and talk about their chances of winning their 28th World Series.
Okay, before we get into this, I want to cover two things that will be a theme throughout the whole article. The first one is everything I say is assuming health. I can’t predict injuries. Nobody knows who is going to get injured or for how long. Everything I say is assuming there is not a rash of injuries, and/or no major injuries. For the record, a major injury would mean one to the reigning AL MVP that keeps him out for any length of time. So whether it’s how good or bad the team’s going to be, how good or bad a player is going to be, how good or bad the lineup’s going to be or the pitching staff is going to be, or the bullpen, it’s all baring major injury issues. I just don’t want to have to keep writing that every time I mention somebody or something. So keep that in mind throughout this article.
The second thing I want to talk about Is Spring Training stats. Spring Training stats are really weird for a few reasons. One, the games are meaningless and hard to get up for. Two, guys may be working on something specific that they will either improve or drop during the regular season which may affect their production. And three, they have no bearing on what the season’s going to be. Guys have put up big Spring Training stats and then sucked during the regular season. Other guys have sucky Spring Trainings and then have been great in the regular season. It really doesn’t mean anything. I mean you would have to take into consideration who these stats are coming off of, and what’s going on that day? Are they facing Major Leaguers? Are they facing minor leaguers, are they facing the proverbial Guy who will be bagging groceries in a week. So You don’t really know how to judge the stats. They are also weird when a guy has a bad spring people think “Oh, he’s only batting a buck something. He’s going to have a bad year”. But when there is a guy hitting .435, like I believe Bellinger is at the moment, nobody thinks “Well, he’s going to bat over 400 this year”. See what I mean? They’re really just meaningless.
The problem is, however, it’s all we have to go on. This is what they’re doing when it comes to position battles. Or deciding if a minor leaguer is ready for the Show. You’ve got to judge the guys over what they’re doing, even though what they are doing is meaningless. It’s all we got. So, I’m going to use the preseason stats to judge players, but you got to remember to take it all with a grain of salt because everything changes once the season begins.
The offense took the biggest hit in the off season when right fielder Juan Soto signed with the New York Metropolitans. Losing Soto, who came in 3rd in AL MVP voting in his only season in the Bronx, hurts. He is a phenomenal hitter just coming into his prime. Obviously, I would rather have Soto on the Yankees than not. With that said, I feel the Bombers did a great job filling out their lineup and, when healthy, should actually be better offensively than they were just a season ago. Their line up this year should be a lot deeper and thus even more productive than last year. It was pretty much a two-man offense in the Bronx a season ago with AL MVP Aaron Judge and Soto doing most of the damage. Of course, that was better than the previous season when it was just Judge and they missed the play-offs all together.
The Yankees were never going to replace Soto with one guy. Players as good or better than Soto are far and few between and very hard to come by. But the lineup as a whole is going to be much better this season than it was last season. A deeper lineup with fewer easy outs for the opposing pitcher is going to be a lot harder to deal with than a top-heavy line up where you just have to avoid being beat by two guys. When the Yankees got off to their hot start last season it was when Judge was actually in a big slump. They won because guys like Verdugo and Volpe and Cabrera were all hitting very well. The depth of the lineup produced offense. Once those guys stopped hitting, the offense struggled to produce even though Judge started having an MVP season. This season’s lineup should produce much more like the lineup did last April with the improvements they made in personnel and the improvements individual players should make this season.
Let’s take the outfield. Is Bellinger or the Martian going to be as good as Soto was? Probably not. Although Bellinger does have an MVP season in his past and is tailor made to hit in Yankee Stadium. Am I expecting the .305/47/115 line from that MVP season? No. Two seasons ago in Chicago he hit .307/26/97 with 20 stolen bases and only 87 Ks. In Yankee Stadium, that seems feasible. What I am expecting is for him to continue his hot spring and have a very good season for the Yankees. This would be huge as he will be the guy hitting behind Judge, which means, he is going to get a lot of at bats with men on base. The Yankees are really going to need him to take advantage of these opportunities and I believe he will. As far as the Martian goes, we don’t really know what to expect. Jasson Dominguez has been a highly touted prospect since he was 16 years old so the potential is there. He has had mixed results in his two short MLB stints. I am assuming the Yankees have told him that he is the left fielder the whole season so he doesn’t have to press or try too hard to keep his role just as they did with Volpe two seasons ago. He started to turn it on towards the end of Spring Training and has shown off his power and his speed. He has the potential to be in the Rookie of the Year race but he has also shown that he can struggle in the Majors as well. My guess is we get a solid year out of Dominguez. As the left fielder, he only has to be better than Verdugo was last season. It’s a really low bar to get over. Verdugo hit .233 with 13 homers, 61 RBIs, 28 doubles, and 2 stolen bases. I think the Martian will be better than that.
Speaking of Dominguez, I like that they are making him the everyday left fielder instead of playing him in center. My first reaction was that it made more sense to put him in his most comfortable position to make it easier for him to adjust to the Majors. However, once I heard their explanation, I agreed with it. They put him in left because he can play left every game. If he plays center, whenever Trent Grisham plays, he would have to move positions. Grisham is a great outfielder. He can’t hit a lick, but he is as good as anyone in center field. If he is going to be in the lineup, you have to play him in center. That means the centerfielder has to move to either right or left on the days he plays. It’s a lot easier for a veteran like Bellinger to move around the field than it would be for a rookie. Especially with the Martian being so uncomfortable out of center coming into this season. By having him be the every day left fielder he gets to concentrate on learning to be the best left fielder he can be. They smartly made the decision well before camp started so he would have plenty of time to mentally prepare and to get in as much work as he could out in left. Is he going to win the Gold Glove out there this season? No. But he should be at least serviceable and I would imagine he will only get better and better as he gets more and more time out there. And let’s face it, is he going to be much worse in left than Soto was in right?
And that brings us back to replacing Soto. Neither the Martian or Bellinger is likely to have as good of a season as Soto had last year but I am willing to bet that the outfield of Judge, Bellinger, and Dominguez will produce more than Soto, Verdugo, and Judge did last season. It won’t be easy to beat the 112 homers, 314 RBIs, 95 Doubles, 6 triples, 311 walks, and 19 stolen bases from last years trio, but I think they will. And yes, we will revisit this at the end of the season.
The infield is similar to the outfield in that they lost Gleyber Torres, who had a great second half after they moved him into the lead off spot, and they lost Rizzo, thank god. Like the outfield, I think as a unit this year’s infield will outperform last seasons. For one, they will have Jazz for a full season. His numbers at second should surpass Gleyber’s numbers from last season, especially in the stolen base department. At first base they brought in Paul Goldschmidt. I have always been a Goldschmidt fan and would have loved to have had him years ago. While not the player he once was, Goldschmidt still has a lot in the gas tank. Much like the Martian in left, he has a very low bar to get over to be an improvement from last season. None of the players the Yankees put at first base produced on a regular basis. Not a single one of them hit a home run after July 31st. They combined for 17 home runs, 24 doubles, 85 RBIs, 146 hits, and a .205 batting average. Last season Goldschmidt went for .245 with 22 home runs, 65 RBIs, 147 hits, and 33 doubles. Just that is a nice improvement. If he hits as he did in the second half last season all year, it will be a big improvement.
Volpe was an extremely streaky hitter last season. If he can just get a little more consistency in his hitting, he will have a better season than last year. Last season he seemed torn between going for power and trying to hit for average. I don’t mind giving up power for average if you hit for a high average. I feel we will see more of that this season from Tony Fox. With another year under his belt, his confidence should be high and the pressure should be off of him. Hopefully he blossoms into the hitter the Yankees think he can be.
The problem the Yankees have in the lineup is third base, and it’s only a problem because none of the young guys have taken it. It should have been Paraza’s job to take, but he has not hit at all in spring training. He can definitely play the position. He’s great defensively. The issue is the Yankees have a lot of options defensively for 3rd, but they have no one who can actually hit consistently. Cabrera has always been diminishing returns, the more he plays, the worse he hits, if that makes any sense. He’s great as a utility guy they can play in a game here or game there. You can plug him in any position besides catcher and there is a good chance he will make a play or get a good hit or do something to help you win, but is he an everyday player? The Yankees are poised to start the season with a platoon at 3rd with the Ozzies. This might work out but I am afraid that Peraza being right-handed means he will get very few at bats and struggle to get his swing going. The Yankees can’t send him down to the minors so he is a prime candidate to get traded if the Yankees can find a move to get them a 3rd baseman. Or if they feel someone else on the roster is a better fit for the platoon with Cabrera.
There have been a couple of other young guys who have hit better in Spring than Paraza has, but they are all kind of deeper down the organizational chart. Alexander Vargas, for example, has had a very good spring hitting .571 with 3 homers and 7 RBIs in his 13 games. But it’s a tiny sample size and he’s only done it at the back half of games. When you only play the back half of games, it means the team doesn’t think you’re ready for the Majors and only playing so that the Major League players don’t have to play the whole game. Thus, you’re facing Minor leaguers so your production tends to be a lot better than it usually is. This was the difference between The Martian and Volpe two years ago. They both had great Springs. Volpe did it as a starter, whereas, the Martian kept coming in at the end of games and hitting against other minor leaguers which he lit up. It’s why Volpe made the team and Dominguez did not. Also, the 23-year-old Vargas hasn’t played above AA where he hit just .251 last season. Jorbit Vivas hit .423 this spring but he’s in the same boat as Vargas. Pablo Reyes had a nice spring as well. The vet hit over .300 and is actually a right-handed bat so he’s most likely going to make the team. (Quick aside, in just two years the Yankees went from being way too right-handed to being too left-handed. Being too left-handed is better, it’s just funny how they over corrected). If Peraza struggles early, don’t be surprised if Reyes, who as a veteran is better suited for playing periodically, starts getting his at bats.
Another quick aside, as far as LeMehieu goes, I don’t even consider him as being on the Yankees. He’s hurt. He’s always going to be hurt. And when he’s healthy, he can’t hit anymore anyways. I don’t know why people think his injury is a big deal. He wasn’t going to help the team anyways and now they don’t have any pressure to play him. It’s better if we all just pretend he doesn’t exist.
With the rest of their lineup being what it is, and every option being really good defensively, I think it’s OK for the Yankees to take their time figuring out 3rd base. They have until the trade deadline to see if someone on the roster can take control of the position. Or until the Red Sox realize a pissed off Devers is going to be a cancer on their team and they need to move him. Or when Toronto realizes they are not going to resign Vlady and need to move him so he doesn’t leave for nothing. And no, Arenado is not the answer. No! no, no. Shhhhh. He is Not the answer.
Of course, the reason they have an opening at 3rd base is because Jazz Chisholm is moving to second base to take over for Gleyber Torres. Having Jazz for a full season is going to make the offense better. His power and speed and energy will result in a lot of runs being scored. I felt he did get a little too pull happy towards the end of the season with that short porch in right staring at him in the batter box. Hopefully he will not worry as much about yanking balls out of the park and be a more well-rounded hitter. I mean you can’t steal bases if all you do is hit home runs. And Jazz is going to steal a lot of bases this season. He, Volpe, the Martian and who ever plays third should wreak havoc on the bases this season. It will be a great compliment to the power the other guys bring to the table.
Speaking of guys earning a spot on the team in Spring Training, JC Escarra did just that when he finally made it to the Show earning the back up catcher spot for the Yankees. The 29-year-old isn’t a young prospect but he will be a rookie this season. He hit .314 with 3 home runs and 8 RBIs and a couple of doubles to secure one of the open positions on the roster. Hopefully he continues to produce when he is called upon to spell Austin Wells this season. Speaking of Wells, I think he is going to have a huge season. Last year his main focus was proving he could be a Major League catcher. Everyone always raved about his hitting in the minors but questioned his abilities behind the plate. He proved he can be a very good defensive catcher last season. Along with concentrating on his defense, Wells was a rookie last season and he had to learn an entirely new pitching staff. All of this took away from his ability to work on his hitting. With all of that settled and only a few new guys to get used to behind the plate, Wells’ bat should produce a lot better than it did last season. And with Escarra and even Ben Rice to spell him behind the plate, there is less of a chance he runs out of gas at the end of the season as we saw in the playoffs last year. He also has the added advantage of hitting in front of Judge. He is going to get a lot of pitches to hit. He just needs to take advantage of them. So far, he has with a monster spring. There is no reason to think his bat will not continue to be a weapon for the Bronx Bombers.
As far as batting Wells lead off goes (and Goldschmidt against lefties), it makes sense. I don’t like the way the Yankees construct their batting orders. I will go to my grave believing the traditional way is much better but I won’t get into it here. I do understand not wanting or needing a fast guy at the top of the lineup as you don’t want to risk them running into outs in front of Judge. So, if Judge is going to bat second, it makes sense to have someone who can take advantage of his protection batting in front of him as Soto did last year. Of course, Soto hit second and Judge 3rd and Judge had 144 RBIs but like I said, I won’t get into that stuff now.
This brings us to the DH spot. Not having Giancarlo Stanton sucks. The worst part is they do not know how long he will be out or if he will be able to return this season. Basically, we all have to assume he won’t be back and if he does come back, it will be like a new acquisition. If he can get back for the post season that would be huge as he absolutely rakes in the playoffs. But that’s a long way away and we have a show to do today. With Stanton out of the lineup, it seems as if Ben Rice is going to be the main guy at DH this season. Now, without Stanton there, the Yankees can use different men in that spot. Guys like Judge and Wells can get half days off but utilizing the DH. It will be a fluid position this season. Rice, however, is poised to have a bit of a break out season. In the off season he put on 10 pounds of muscle and it shows. He led all of Spring Training in average exit velocity and managed to hit 5 home runs in 19 games. He also hit .246, which is a lot better than the .171 he hit last season. Rice probably won’t produce at Stanton’s pace but Stanton had availability issues. Rice being in the line up most night’s (at least against righties) will give him a chance to match Stanton’s totals by years end.
As I said at the beginning, they won’t have a bash brothers at the top of the line up this season as they did last year. However. The line up is much deeper and much more well-rounded. On most night’s it should look something like
Well-C
Judge-RF
Bellinger—CF
Goldschmidt—1B
Jazz—2B
Dominguez—LF
Rice—DH
Volpe—SS
Ozzie—3B
It’s a good lineup. If Volpe and the Ozzies can get on base in front of the big guys, they will be able to score a lot of runs this season. There is a ton of power in that lineup and a ton of speed. It is also an excellent defensive lineup. With the exception of Dominguez, everyone is an above average fielder at worse. I said I wasn’t going to but I am going to say it…If they can stay healthy, this lineup will be as good as anyone.
The Yankees’ starting rotation was supposed to be one of the best in the league this season. Then the injury bug came in and destroyed that idea. However, it’s not as bad as it seems. The big blow is that they lost Gerrit Cole for the season (and some of next season). This hurts. However, the Yankees were seemingly prepared for this. In the offseason, their biggest signing was of Max Fried. Fried was supposed to elevate the rotation to a new level. Now he is just Cole’s replacement. It makes me wonder if Cashman had his worries about Cole’s elbow coming into the season and got ahead of it with the Fried signing. So, while losing Cole is not what you want, having Fried, who was the Ace of Atlanta’s staff for years, get’s the rotation back to status quo from last season.
Sadly, that wasn’t the only injury the rotation sustained this spring. Reigning AL Rookie of the year Luis Gil suffered a lat strain and will miss a lot of time. Not only does he have to recover from the injury but then he has to go through a Spring Training. I wouldn’t plan on seeing him until about the 4th of July. At that point, he could be a hell of a mid-season pick up if he can return to form.
Finally, Clark Schmidt had a bunch of nagging injuries this spring and was not able to fully ramp up for the season and will miss the first few weeks as he builds up his arm. Hopefully he will have no other setbacks and will be able to join the rotation after only missing a couple of starts.
Luckily for the Yankees, they had solid replacements already on the roster when these injuries occurred. Cole going down means Marcus Stroman can stop complaining and claim his spot in the rotation. I am not a fan of Stroman’s, and like with Rodon, I will never trust him on the mound, but there are a lot worse 5th starters out there. Gil’s absence means 38-year-old Carlos Carrasco gets to make the opening day roster and take his turn in the rotation. Carasco was not good last season for the Guardians but he had a great spring (1.69 era and 15 Ks in 16 innings) and looks poised to solidify the back end of the rotation. Hopefully this is another instance of the Yankees figuring something out with a pitcher and getting the most out of him.
The Yankees have two off days right off the bat this year. The traditional day off after the opener incase of a rain out and they are also off on Monday (Boo!). I don’t know why this is but they are. This means they don’t need a fifth starter right off the bat. I don’t know if they plan on using one. If Cole was healthy, they would keep him pitching every 5th day and he would have pitched in 3 of their first 9 games. I don’t know if they will take that approach with him out. If they do use a 5th starter, it will be Will Warren. I thought they should have traded Warren in the offseason and kept Poteet for this role but they went in the opposite direction. I have a fear that Warren is a 4A player. He has done very well in the minors and is considered one of their top prospects. He pitched great at the beginning of Spring Training this season. But when he got a cup of coffee in the Show last year, he was awful. This year in Spring Training he looked great until his last two starts when he faced Major League lineups. Well, in Baltimore he faced a Major League lineup. Miami was at least what they consider a Major League lineup. In both of those outings, he got shelled. He gave up 4 runs in 3.2 innings in both starts including giving up two long balls each time out. Is this what Warren is or is he the guy the Yankees think he is. If the Yankees were smart, they would skip him in the rotation the first time through so that he only has to make one or two starts before Schmidt can come back.
Cole, Fried, Rodon, Gil, Schmidt is as good of a rotation as there is in baseball. Fried, Rodon, Gil, Schmidt, Stroman/Carrasco is a very good rotation. The problem is the Yankees need to get to the point in the season where this is the rotation. For now, the rotation is the weak spot on the team. If they can get healthy all at once, they will be a strength. Until then, the Yankees may have to hit their way to victory more often than not.
The Bullpen, on the other hand, should be a huge strength for the Yankees. Some how Cashman always manages to figure out how to make the Yankees Pen a weapon for the team and this offseason he did it the easiest way possible. He went out and got a great closer. By adding Devin Williams to an already very good Bullpen, Cashman may have assembled the best Pen in the League. By trading out Shakes the Clown, aka Clay Holmes for a lock down closer, it anchors the Pen and allows everyone else to slide into more productive spots. Most importantly Luke Weaver. Instead of waiting for the nineth to get Weaver on the mound, the Yankees can now either use him in the biggest spot of the game or if they want, they can go back to the 1996 model and use him for the 7th and 8th innings before calling in the Airbender to finish things off the way they did with Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland. Even if it isn’t necessarily turning games into a 6-inning affair, the ability to use Weaver for more than 1 inning will be big for the Bombers.
It’s not just the back end of the Bullpen that should be good this season. They have a good mix of righties and lefties (especially with the addition of Ryan Yarbrough) to get them to the back end. Tim Hill is back as another lefty out there. Mark Leiter looked as good in Spring Training as he did in the playoffs when he seemed to figure something out. Fernando Cruz should be a nice addition as well. I don’t know how many innings they are going to get out of the back end of their rotation, especially to start the season, so having a great Bullpen will be necessary for the Yanks to get off to a good start. If they live up to their potential, they should be more than good enough to get the job done. And, like the rest of the team, there should be reinforcements coming when guys like Cousins and Loaisiga get healthy. Can you imagine this Pen if Loaisiga ever returned to form?
Baseball isn’t golf. You are not playing against the course; you are playing against opponents. And this season, the Yankees’ opponents should be much more of a problem than they were last season. Most notably the AL East. It wouldn’t surprise me if the AL East is the best division in baseball this season. Not only have the Yankees rearmed but the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Baltimore and Tampa should all be good this year.
The Sox did the most improving out of everyone. They had pitching problems last season and they went out and made two big additions in Crochet and Buehler. Not only does this give them two big time starters at the top of their rotation but it moves their returning starters down to the spots they are more fitting for. Bello, Houck, and Crawford are not being asked to carry the staff anymore and will be much better in their new roles. Their lineup should be very good with the addition of Bregman, who has a very good swing for Fenway Park. Their two big question marks are closer and Devers. They are starting the season with Chapman as their closer. We Yankee fans know what that is like. Even when he gets the job done, it’s an adventure. And with Devers, they better hope he adjusts to being a DH and doesn’t pout or eat his way out of the lineup. Not having his bat in the middle of the lineup at the level he usually plays at would be a big blow to their efforts.
The Blue Jays tried and failed again at landing the big fish in free agency but still did all right for themselves. Max Scherzer has looked great in the spring and should really help that rotation. The addition of Santander is going to be a big boost to their lineup along with a healthy Bichette playing up to his abilities. Santander heading north is especially bad for the Yankees as he is a bonafide Yankee killer and the Jays already have Alejandro Kurk, also a Bonafide Yankee killer. It’s going to be very hard for the Yankees pitchers going against Toronto this season. Luckily, they don’t play as many in division games as they used to. The big question for the Jays will be what they do if they fall out of the race. Do they risk letting Vlady walk for nothing or trade him? What about Bichette? How far out do they have to be at the deadline to pull the pin on the season?
The Orioles may have lost their Ace, I was really surprised they let him walk, but they still have a great lineup of good young hitters. And those hitters are only going to keep getting better with more experience. They replaced Santander with Tyler O’Neil who should do well with the new field dimensions at Camden Yards. Their Bullpen is very good as well, especially with the return of their closer, Felix Bautista. If the Orioles rotation can hold its own, and they did last year, they should be battling for the division with the Yankees and Sox all season long.
Tampa Bay is the most interesting team in the League this year. Not only are they going to be playing in a minor league ball park but they are going to be playing in someone else’s (the Yankees) minor league ball park. I am actually going to be interested in watching their home games when the Yankees are not playing. To play regular season games in a minor league ball park in Florida is going to be an adventure. They are going to hit and give up so many home runs. The outfielders are going to have an adventure on every fly ball. It’s definitely going to be interesting. If you don’t know what I am talking about, minor league stadiums don’t have upper decks. The ball gets into the wind a lot easier and a lot faster and for a longer period of time. Thus, the wind can wreak havoc on fly balls. And if it’s blowing out, double digit scores will be a regular occurrence. Also, with no upper deck, the sun going down will be in the outfielders’ eyes until it gets behind the stadium. It’s going to make for some fun games. And if you are thinking “aren’t the A’s going to have the same problems?” Well, 2 things, I don’t know what the wind is like in Sacramento and two, no one has cared about the A’s since Mark McGuire left.
Well, there you have it. The Yankees may have lost an all-world hitter and their Ace for the season but things are from doom and gloom. They should still have an excellent season and be competing for the division and their 28th World Series title. Assuming the injury bug doesn’t keep rearing its ugly head.
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