The Boston Bruins have made it to the second round of the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs by defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs in overtime of game 7 of their first-round match up.  The Bruins let a 3 to1 game lead slip away before finishing off the Red Sox to their Yankees with a beautiful goal by should be Hart Trophy winner David Pastrnak.  Now they take on the division winning Florida Panthers.  Let’s take a look at how the Bruins got here and what needs to happen for them to advance to the next round. 

In my preview for the Toronto series I said it was going to come down to the Bruins scoring and goaltending.  The Bruins started the series scoring goals again Samsonov, who was not very good.  In game 1 they had 5 goals and Pastrnak only had an assist on the empty netter at the end.  In game 2 they only scored 2 goals, one of which was by Pastrnak, and lost.  Game 3 saw them light the lamp 4 times in a win.  Again, they had 3 goals that did not involve Pastrnak.  Game 4 had them tally 3 goals in another victory.  This is the point in which Toronto realized Samsonov wasn’t getting it done and they needed to try someone else.  That someone was Joseph Woll.  He was much better in games 5 and 6 as the Bruins only managed to score a single goal in each of the games with him tending the net, one of those was literally a last second goal in a decided game.  On that goal, Woll was injured and unavailable for game 7.  Samsonov stepped back in and played very well.  The Bruins, however, were able to outlast him and the Maple Leafs and secure a ticket to the next round. 

What does all that mean?  It means that when the Bruins were getting secondary scoring (aka scoring not involving Pastrnak) they were in control of the series.  When that scoring dried up, Toronto took over.  This is going to be the biggest question going forward for the Black and Gold, will they score enough goals to win?  They don’t have to put up 5 or 6 goals every night, though I wouldn’t complain, but they do have to get to 3 or 4.  They can’t hope to win games 1-0. Marchand, who was great in game 3, DeBrusk, Fredrick, and Geekie have to continue to produce. If the secondary scoring keeps coming, the Bruins will have a chance.  If not, this could be a quick series. 

The reason they have a chance if they can just score 3 or 4 goals a night is because their goaltending is just that good.  I said the Bruins goal tending was going to give them a chance in the series and it did.  Jeremy Swayman was by far and away the MVP of the first round.  He was clearly the best player for either team.  Without him I would be writing a Bruins post mortem right now.  It did help that Nylander missed the first two games, Mathews missed games 4 and 5 (both games won by Toronto) and Marner apparently sold all his Bruins stock (because he apparently doesn’t own them anymore).  It took the Bruins two games to figure out Swayman needed to be the goalie for the entire series and I am surprised they figured it out that fast.  As I pointed out in my series preview, for whatever reason, Swayman has been dominate against the Maple Leafs all season.  There was no reason to ever try Ullmark in net.  But at least they didn’t force the issue and stayed with Swayman from game 3 on and he made them look like geniuses.

So obviously Swayman should have the net now until he faulters, right?  Right?  Well, not so fast.  I had told you that Swayman needed to be the goaltender for the Toronto series because of how well he had played against them in the regular season.  Well, by that standard, Ullmark should be the goalie against Florida.  This season series is the exact opposite of the Leafs series.  The Bruins won all 4 games against each team (it actually surprised me to see the Bruins went undefeated against the Panthers).  In three of those games Ullamrk was in net and Swayman obviously got the other game.  Against Ullmark, Florida scored 2, 1, and 2 goals while they scored 3 in the game against Swayman.  Ullamrk has a .95 save percentage against the Panthers and Swayman a .857.  Ullmark was clearly the better goalie against Florida.  This is the exact same reason I said Swayman should be the net minder against Toronto so it stands to reason Ullmark should get the call against Florida.  Now, Ullmark hasn’t played in 2 weeks.  That’s a long time to go without seeing any action.  Plus Swayman is obviously hot.  This is the problem with having two goaltenders.  It should be Ullmark’s net but the situation makes that a hard call.  And if you used the regular season success of Swayman against Toronto to justify to Ullmark why he isn’t playing, then isn’t it going to be hard to tell him his success against Florida doesn’t matter?  According to the morning skate (I have the advantage of writing this the day of the game) Swayman is going to get the start.  I can’t really blame them for going with the hot goalie but it might not be the right move.  I wonder if they will go back to a rotation for the first couple of games as they did in the first round.  See is Swayman is still hot against Florida and then see if Ullamrk is well rested or ice cold and then go from there. We shall see.  In a vacuum it should be Ullmark who gets the job and maybe by the end of the series it will be.

Does any of this matter or is it just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic?  I think it matters.  A lot of people expect Florida to handle the Bruins pretty easily in this series.  The Panthers are the betting favorite as well. Hell, most figured the Panthers would handle the Leafs just as easily.  I don’t think this is true.  The Bruins were 4-0 against Florida in the regular season.  Yes, the regular season is different than the play-offs but 4-0 is 4-0.  Sometimes a team just matches up very well against another team no matter how much better that team is supposed to be.  Last season the Bruins lost to the Panthers in the first round after bring up 3-1 and dropping game 7.  That loss was really on management as much as it was on the players.  Ullmark was doing well in net but then he was injured.  It was clear something was wrong with him but management wasn’t confident enough in Swayman, a rookie at the time, to put him in net.  The Bruins blew the lead and by the time they put Swayman in, it was too late.  That won’t happen this year.  No matter who gets the call in net to start the series, if they falter or get banged up, the Bruins will not hesitate to move to the other guy.  At least I really hope at this point they won’t.  So that should not be a problem this season. 

Also, during the regular season the Bruins did well scoring against the Panthers.  They out scored Florida 13-8 and scored at least 3 goals in every game.  Not exactly Gretsky’s Oilers but it’s better than their usual.  And all 4 games were against Bobrovsky.  Now, 2 of those games went to overtime and a third was a 1 goal game so I am not saying the Bruins dominated the Panthers or anything.  I am saying they have shown that they can hang with them.

Florida is going to try to bully the Bruins.  They are going to focus on Pastrnak and try to wear him down.  Of the 13 goals the Bruins scored Pastrnak only had 1 goal and 3 assists.  So they got 9 goals in 4 games that didn’t involve Pastrnak.  They are going to need that secondary scoring to keep up.  The Bruins are going to have to take advantage of their Power Play opportunities.  This may come as a surprise but having an extra man on the ice is a great way to make up for a lack of goal scoring.  In turn, they have to stay out of the box and they really have to do better in the face off circle.  Especially on the defensive end.  That was a real problem for them against Toronto.      

I know I sound like I am just repeating myself but every series the Bruins play are going to come down to the same things.  Their goaltender is going to have to be their best player and they are going to have to get scoring that doesn’t involve Pastrnak.  Pastrnak having a better series wouldn’t hurt either, not that he was bad last series.  The games the Bruins and Panthers played this year were all basically one goal games.  One goal games in hockey can go either way.  Florida could have easily won any or all of the games.  I expect this series to be very close game in and game out.  Now, like the regular season, one team could win the first four games and people will think it wasn’t a close series.  That just won’t be true.  I picked Toronto to win the first round and I am very happy to have been wrong.  I really want to pick the Bruins in this one but I am afraid to jinx them.  Florida has home ice advantage in what I expect to be a close series so I will pick them and hope the Bruins can catch some breaks and prove me wrong again.