The Boston Bruins will begin their quest for the Cup against a very familiar foe, the Toronto Maple Leafs.  This first round match-up will be the 17th time these Original 6 teams have met in the post-season.  In the regular season, the Bruins won all 4 games against the Leafs.  Let’s look at could decide if that trend continues. 

The story of this series will be the same for every series the Bruins play this year.  It basically comes down to two things, the goalie rotation and the offense. 

For the offense, the question is, can the Bruins score enough when the other team is focused on shutting down Pastrnak?  Like most sports, NHL teams do a lot more game planning in the playoffs and play to exploit the other teams’ weaknesses and diminish their strenghts than they do in the regular season.  Surely, the Maple Leafs and any other team the Bruins play will concentrate their efforts to keep Pastrnak off the score sheet.  Pastrnak scored 18 more goals than the next closest Bruin, had 25 more assist than second place, and had 43 more points.  (He really, really should be the Hart trophy winner)  The most obvious game plan is to shut him down and dare the rest of the team to beat you.  So the question is, can they? 

In the Bruins 47 wins, Pastrnak had 34 goals and 49 assists and was a plus 43.  In the 35 losses…13 goals, 14 helpers, minus 22.  Clearly, as Pastrnak goes, so go the Bruins.  The Bruins do have home ice advantage, so they get last change in 4 of the games.  That will make it harder for Toronto to match up their best defenders with the Bs top line.  In Canada, when the Leafs have last change, it will be a lot easier.  The Leafs only have to win one game in Boston to win the series.  This and every series is going to hinge on the secondary scoring of the Bruins, and, honestly, I don’t think they have enough. 

I love Marchand.  His number will be hanging from the rafters when he’s done.  But he scored 5 goals since the all-star break.  Heinen, Coyle, Debrusk?  8,7, and 7, respectively.  For comparison, Toronto had 5 guys score at least 13 goals since the break.  The Bs had 2, Pastrnak and his line mate Zacha.  Mathews scored 29 in the second half.  That would tie him with Marchand for second on the Bruins for the season. Can the Bruins gang of average guys step up and score enough for them to win?  We shall see.  I really wish they traded a goalie for some cap space to sign another scorer, but that ship sailed 6 months ago. 

Speaking of the goaltenders, that will be the biggest story of the post-season.  Will the Bruins stick to the rotation, or will they go the more normal route.  Today, Don Sweeney said they have a plan for the goalies and that the net minders know the plan, but he did not disclose said plan.  He did say performance would factor in, so it sounds like a straight plation may be off the board.

I have been against the goalie rotation and the idea of paying two goaltenders from the beginning.  I guess it worked during the regular season, but that’s over now.  Paying a guy to open the bench door doesn’t help you win playoff games.  This series is the perfect example of why you do not rotate goaltenders.  In his three starts against the Leafs this season, Jeremy Swayman is 3-0-0 with a 1.30 GAA and a .959 save percentage.  The Bruins did win Ullmark’s game.  It was in overtime, and Ullmark gave up 3 goals.  How can you possibly defend playing Ullmark in a game unless Swayman gets lit up.  Even if he loses but only gives up 3 or fewer goals, you can’t justify playing Ullmark.  Yet, Swayman isn’t used to grinding out multiple games in a row, even with the spread out schedule of the playoffs, and Ullmark isn’t used to sitting for a week at a time.  So what do you do?

No matter what they do, if they lose, they will get killed for it.  If they platoon and lose, everyone is going to point out what a horrible idea it was.  If they don’t platoon, everyone is going to ask why they stopped and point out that the goalies were out of rhythm.  This is the problem you create when you try to out think everyone.  You’re damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.  If they win the first series or lose because they just can’t score, they should avoid the criticism.  But in New England, I doubt they will.

The other factor in this series is who will choke worse?  Both of these teams have a history of choking un the playoffs, though I think the Bruins’ is a little overrated (just because you lost, doesn’t mean you choked).  A lot of Bruins fans were hoping for this match-up because the Leafs always lose to the Bruins in the playoffs.  It’s been 6 straight playoff series wins for the Bs over Toronto.  No matter how much more skilled the Leafs are, they always find a way to fall to the Bruins.  This actually scares me.  I mean, Toronto has to win at some point, right?  The Red Sox did  eventually defeat the Yankees.  It’s been 65 years.  And this would absolutely be the perfect year for it to happen after the Bruins swept the regular season series.  It would be very in brand for the Bruins. 

I know the Bruins took all four games from the Maple Leafs this season and out scored them 15 to 7 in doing so.  But one of those games went into over time and the another to a shoot out.  Shootouts and 3 on 3 don’t happen in the playoffs (thank god).  I just look at the Leafs line up with Mathews and Nylander and Marner (who kills the Bruins) and Tavares.  Even old friend Bertuzzi, who ended up having a solid season, by the way.  I look at that firepower and can’t see how the Bruins can keep up. 

The advantage the Bruins do have is in net, assuming they don’t mess it up.  The Leafs goalies played to a 3.18 goals against (21st in the league) and a .898 goals agaianst (24th overall).  The Bruins finished with 2.70 (6th) and .915 (3rd).  Clearly, the Bruins were a lot better. The Leafs goaltending is what gives the Bruins offense a chance.  But any goaltender can get hot and carry a team through a playoff series.  This has to remain a strength for the Bruins if they are going to win, which means whatever their plan in net is, it better work.

This also means the Bruins have to take care of the puck and stay out of the box.  They can’t afford to give Toronto any high caliber scoring chances.  And for the love of Bobby Orr, clear the puck out of their zone at the end of games!    

So over the next fortnight, we will find out if the Bruins offense can keep up with the Maple Leafs or if the Bruins goaltending can keep the Leafs in check.  I hope I am wrong, but unless the Leafs pull a Leafs, I think it might be one and done for the Black and Gold.