How big of a Yankee fan am I?  Well, I have been a die hard, life long 49ers fan.  They played in the Superbowl this Sunday.  For the last 2 weeks since the NFC Championship game all I could think about was…. the Yankees line up.  As excited as I was for the 49ers and how badly I wanted them to win, with pitchers and catcher reporting this week, the only thing on my mind is the Yankees batting order and how bad Boone and company are going to screw it up. 

It’s been established that they plan on batting Juan Soto second and Aaron Judge 3rd.  Even Judge mentioned it at an event he was at.  This blows my mind.  For the last 2 seasons all we heard about from anyone around the Yankees, reporters, fans, etc, is that the Yankees need someone to bat behind Judge.  They need to get Judge some protection so teams can’t pitch around him.  So they go out and actually get Juan Soto, which I have been calling for since he was on Washington, and they want to bat him in front of Judge.  Really??!?  After 2 years, we finally get a guy and they want to bat him ahead of Judge. 

Lets look at this from a numbers angle.  The people who think Soto should bat ahead of Judge all point to Soto’s OBP.  Last season Soto had a great OBP of .410.  If he repeats that this season it would mean that 59% of the time he will NOT be on base in front of Judge.  But wait, it’s actually worse than that.  35 of those times he got “on base” were home runs.  So those don’t count.  And being a lefty in Yankee Stadium, do those home runs go up?  I am sure the Yankees hope so. (Please don’t think I am complaining about Soto hitting homers, I hope they go up as well).  And it’s not just the 81 games he’ll play in Yankee Stadium.  He’s going from playing in the NL West to the AL East.  Most of his games will be in much more home run friendly ball parks.  35 home runs is the minimum a healthy Soto hits this season. 

But wait, there’s more.  Last season he led the league in walks with 132.  There is no way he’s going to walk that much with Judge hitting behind him.  I don’t care who hit behind him in San Diego, they aren’t Aaron Judge.  Less walks means more strikeouts and more balls in play.  He struck out 129 times last season, which now a days is respectable.  His bapip was .297.  Which is good but a lot lower than .410.  What this all means is that with the fewer walks and thus more Ks and more balls in play, his OBP is going to go down.  Even if it just drops to .390, which would still have him in the top 10 of the league, it will mean 61% of the time, he will not be on base when Judge bats.  Add in the extra home runs and it will probably be close to 65% of the time Judge will bat without Soto on base. 

Now, if Soto bats behind Judge, he will bat behind him 100% of the time.  Every time Judge bats the pitcher will have to worry about Soto coming up next.  I don’t know about you, but I like 100% more than 35% to 40%.  It’s that easy. 

You may be asking yourselves why it’s more important to protect Judge than it is to protect Soto, an equally great hitter.  Well, while they are both great hitters, it comes down to home runs.  Soto’s 35 home runs was his career high.  Even with the Yankee Stadium bump, the AL East bump, and with Judge hitting behind him, Soto may get up to 45 home runs.  If both players stay healthy, Judge, on the other hand, will make a run at Bonds’ home run record with Soto batting behind him.  75 is easily in play.  He might make a play for 80.  I’m not exaggerating.  Judge hit 62 in a season where the Yankees offense was so bad, Michael Kay was exasperated every game questioning why anyone would even consider pitching to Judge.  Last season when the offense wasn’t much better, if at all, and he missed 2 months with an injury and had to deal with his toe the last 2 months of the season, he hit 37.  Which is 2 more than Soto hit in 162 games.  What do you think Judge will do in a whole season with Juan Soto lurking behind him?  I really wish we could find out. 

Don’t get me wrong here. I am not all about home runs and I certainly am not about chasing records. But home runs do help you win games. Home runs equal RBIs (the most important stat in the game btw.). Not only that but having a guy hitting that many home runs puts fear into the opposing pitchers and managers. If he gets on that kind of pace they will have to start considering pitching around him or being so careful that he, and his very good plate discipline will get a ton of walks which will mean Soto will get to bat with guys on base and drive them in with his all around hitting. Again, this is the best way to go.    

This is something else to really consider, Soto doesn’t want to bat second.  His agent, Scott Boras, called the Padres last season on multiple occasions and told them this.  While I would think Soto would be fine with batting anywhere the Yankees ask him to bat, the question is, will this affect his desire to re-sign with the Yankees after this season.   Would he rather play for a team that will bat him 3^rd?  Now, if the Yankees have no desire to sign him for the long term, and I wouldn’t put that pass them, then it is not a problem.  But if they want him to be a mainstay in the middle of their order for years to come, then they are going to want to take his wishes into consideration.  Now, would they ever go old school and bat Soto 3^rd and Judge 4^th?  I would consider it but I would be less surprised if they batted me 4^th than if they bat Judge 4^th on the reg. 

It’s not just Soto and Judge who are affected by their order.  The rest of the line up is as well.  If you go Judge then Soto you can then bat Gleyber Torres 4th and keep the right-left-right thing going in the middle of the order.  Gleyber was by far and away the Yankees second best hitter last season.  He led the team in BA, was second in RBIs, second in HRs, and lead the team in doubles. He played in all but 2 games and only struck out 98 times.  This man needs to bat in the middle of the order.  He needs to bat where he can drive in runs.  If the Yankees put Soto ahead of Judge then Rizzo bats 4th.  Then the question becomes who bats 5th?  I could live with Gleyber there but that would mean Boone and the rest of the brain trust will have to have the guts and brains to bat Stanton 7th if they want to keep the left right thing going.  Last season, as bad as he was, Stanton never batted lower than 5th and he only did that in 9 games.  Are they really going to bat him 7th, behind Verdugo?  I’d be shocked.   My question to Boone and company would be “where does Gleyber bat in this line up”?  Mind you, Gleyber is also a free agent after this season.  If the Yankees bury him in the bottom of the line up, will they have to pay him a lot more money to get him to stay?  Are the Yankees going to lose 2 of their top three hitters at the end of this season?

The last two spots in the order seem to be pretty much set Volpe batting 9^th and the catchers batting 8^th.    I am very OK with this.  It keeps the pressure off of Volpe and yet it makes him a defacto lead off guy after the first inning when batting your best hitter second.  Plus by batting 9^th rather than first, he can steal all the bases he can without worrying about making outs on the base paths with Judge or Soto at the plate.   He stole 24 bases last season.  I would love for that number to basically double this season.  Hopefully his Batting average goes up and he will get more opportunities to go along with what I hope is a more aggressive approach.  The catchers will probably have a righty, lefty platoon except when Cole is pitching.  I expect Travino to be Cole’s personal catcher.  

That’s the easy part of the line up.  They have to get the rest of the line up correct. If I was managing the line up, and couldn’t go old school, it would be…

3B–LeMahieu 

CF–Judge

LF–Soto

2B–Gleyber

1B–Rizzo

DH–Stanton

RF–Verdugo

C–Travino/Wells

SS–Volpe

That’s the lineup they should go with. It’s the line up that will produce the most runs. It’s balanced in both right lefty and in power hitters and contact guys. It’s the most difficult line up a pitcher can face. Judge, Soto, and Gleyber in the middle of that line up will produce so many runs and be so difficult for pitchers to get through. I doubt if anyone has a better three man combo than that in their line up. I do think it would actually be better if Verdugo batted second and everyone moved down a slot but the Yankees love having their best hitter bat second so that will never happen (except on my MLB The Show version of the Yankees).   

Then there is the big curveball in all of this. What happen when/if the Martian comes back? Jasson Dominguez is already fielding balls in the outfield. There is talk of him being ahead of schedule. Boone even suggested he could break camp with the team. I would hope the Yankees would be overly precautious with him, but it seems like he will be back sooner than later this season. While there’s a good chance someone gets hurt and this all works itself out by the time he’s good to go, we have to assume everyone will be healthy. If that’s the case, what do they do with him? What I would do is play him in center field every day and platoon Stanton and Verdugo as the DH’s. You can obviously play Verdugo in the outfield on his days and DH one of the outfielders to give them a half day off if they want to. I am a big fan of platooning Stanton. He hit .265 against lefties last season with a .324 OBP. It was only 75 plate appearances but it’s a lot better than the .175 he hit against righties. Verdugo hit .220 vs lefties and .279 vs righties. This seems like the perfect platoon. Stanton will be pissed about it but until he starts hitting again he should have to live with it. These are the types of decisions I am afraid Boone and company don’t have the balls to make. 

As far as the pitching goes, I think this is where the season is going to be decided. And mostly it all comes down to this guy…

No wait…I meant this guy…

Rodon, not Rodan, is the key. He needs to be a legit number two starter for this team to have the type of season they are capable of having. To be honest, I have zero confidence in his ability to bounce back from last years disaster. Hopefully it was all about the injuries and he will go back to being the pitcher they thought they are getting with that massive contract but I still don’t see how he can get right handed hitters out consistently with just a fastball and slider. He has done it before though so there has to be a way he can do it again. He doesn’t have to be great, he just needs to be good. 

If Rodon is good again, they have Cole as their ace, Rodon, then Stroman as there number three. I think Stroman will be good for them. The only thing I worry about is his head. He really wanted to be a Yankee and pitch in NY. That’s a good thing as long as he doesn’t let that become a thing. In other words as long as he doesn’t indulge in the NYC lifestyle and the celebrity of pitching for the Yankees. And as long as he doesn’t let the fans and media get to him. He has a real chance of being the next in a long line of guys who can’t handle playing in the Bronx. If his head is in the game, the type of pitcher he is should do very well as a Yankee. 

After that is the next big question mark, Nasty Nestor Cortez. Like Rodon, he needs to be better than he was last season. He too was dealing with injuries. He just needs to be solid for the Yankees staff to be good. And finally we have Clarke Schmidt. He got off to a bad start last season as he couldn’t get lefties out at all. Then he figured it out and pitched well in the middle of the season. Towards the end he ran out of gas as it was his first season as a full time starter. If he can get to where he won’t wear down as the season goes along, he will be a great 5th starter. 

Now, will all of these question marks work out in the Yankees favor? Probably not. But they don’t have to all be great for the Yankees to have a big year. The Bullpen I assume will be very good to great as that is the one thing I actually believe in Cashman’s ability to pull off. Some how he always has a good to great bullpen. The Yankees bullpen had the best ERA in the league last season. So if the rotation is solid and the bullpen is very good, it should be enough for the Yankees to make a run at the division and the Series. Also remember, it’s a long time between now and October. A lot can change. The Yankees most certainly can add to their staff. To wit, I wonder if Snell doesn’t get any offers and comes back to the Yankees willing to take theirs, if the Yankees will take him. Or did they already spend that money? Personally I am not a fan of signing Snell but the possibility is still out there. I don’t trust him, especially on a long term contract and I much rather spend that money on Gleyber and Soto.  

My guess is that all of these what if’s come down somewhere in the middle. Some guys bounce back, some don’t. Some guys stay healthy, some don’t. Some moves work out, some don’t. All in all I think the Yankees will have a much better season than last year and will be fighting for the Division and looking to make a run this October.     

But on the other hand. There is the possibility, though very slim, that the Yankee line up stays healthy. Guys like Rizzo and LeMahieu hit the way they did at their peeks last season. Volpe has a second year bump. Verdugo keeps his head in the game and excels at Yankee Stadium. Stanton isn’t washed. The Martian and Wells pick up where they left off last season. Cole is Cole. Rodon pitches like he did just 2 seasons ago. Same for Nester. Stroman pitches like he did before his injury last season. Clarke Schmidt pitches like he did in the middle of last season. The Bullpen works out as usual and Homes doesn’t have his once a week control issue game. In that very unlikely but not impossible scenario, the Yankees win 120 games and cruise to a World Series showdown with the Dodgers.